venky321
01-14 07:15 AM
The best thing an individual can do is look for a full time job and not worry about things not in his control. I cannot imagine that they will cancel existing visas, so those who have time on their visas left are probably safe.....for now.
If they are going to phase out of IT contractors from H1B visas by denying all new extensions or new visas, then they will be positions that need to be filled. While they might be a lot of unemployed American programmers they might lack the skills the newest technologies.
Other than that, this could be a great opportunity for Indian companies as large IT implementations might be completely outsourced now; if companies are unable to staff their projects with H1Bs here.
If they are going to phase out of IT contractors from H1B visas by denying all new extensions or new visas, then they will be positions that need to be filled. While they might be a lot of unemployed American programmers they might lack the skills the newest technologies.
Other than that, this could be a great opportunity for Indian companies as large IT implementations might be completely outsourced now; if companies are unable to staff their projects with H1Bs here.
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samay
07-21 08:28 PM
Dear Attorney,
I am from India and working as a Software Programmer / Analyst in a decent company and I am using AC21 with this company...and my Green Card journey started September 2002.
Labor applied (EB3) - September 2002
Labor approved - July 2003
I-140 / I-485 applied - December 2003
I_140 approved - August 2004 after responding to an RFE
Two times finger prints done and name check is done.
RFE about sons birth certificate -- responded last year.
But still the way things are going with Visa numbers and seems no light at the end of the tunnel. I am decided to change EB3 to EB2.
What would you suggest?
Where can I find the process for this switch (EB3 to EB2) ??
Is there any benefit switching from AOS to Consular Process?
Thanks and appreciate your response.
The process of switching from EB3 to EB2 also takes some time and expense. Please do consult your attorney and weigh in all pros and cons very carefully. In case you require assistance please contact me.
I am from India and working as a Software Programmer / Analyst in a decent company and I am using AC21 with this company...and my Green Card journey started September 2002.
Labor applied (EB3) - September 2002
Labor approved - July 2003
I-140 / I-485 applied - December 2003
I_140 approved - August 2004 after responding to an RFE
Two times finger prints done and name check is done.
RFE about sons birth certificate -- responded last year.
But still the way things are going with Visa numbers and seems no light at the end of the tunnel. I am decided to change EB3 to EB2.
What would you suggest?
Where can I find the process for this switch (EB3 to EB2) ??
Is there any benefit switching from AOS to Consular Process?
Thanks and appreciate your response.
The process of switching from EB3 to EB2 also takes some time and expense. Please do consult your attorney and weigh in all pros and cons very carefully. In case you require assistance please contact me.
digmetalq
08-17 02:55 AM
It all makes sense now:
Questioning a Bollywood V.I.P. Named Khan - The Lede Blog - NYTimes.com (http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/15/questioning-a-bollywood-vip-named-khan/)
" Mr. Khan is also working on a new film, �My Name Is Khan,� about racial profiling of Indian Muslims living in the United States after the Sept. 11 attacks."
What a way to get the publicity for the film.
Wow.
We are all tricked into this debate.
This is my last post on this thread. And I am not going to watch this film.
It maybe fun for all the people in this forum to read and debate, it maybe a spoof that srk was mistreated at the entry point. but it is not spoof for all my friends with muslim names. I have travelled with them, and I know the reality.
Questioning a Bollywood V.I.P. Named Khan - The Lede Blog - NYTimes.com (http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/15/questioning-a-bollywood-vip-named-khan/)
" Mr. Khan is also working on a new film, �My Name Is Khan,� about racial profiling of Indian Muslims living in the United States after the Sept. 11 attacks."
What a way to get the publicity for the film.
Wow.
We are all tricked into this debate.
This is my last post on this thread. And I am not going to watch this film.
It maybe fun for all the people in this forum to read and debate, it maybe a spoof that srk was mistreated at the entry point. but it is not spoof for all my friends with muslim names. I have travelled with them, and I know the reality.
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nashim
10-12 05:32 PM
I don�t have money to buy a house now but I think the idea is really great because waiting line will be shorter for the person who can�t buy a house now like me, if people get GC based on this proposal.
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BharatPremi
09-24 06:35 PM
How is assigning Visa number different from issuing Physical green card (they may be two step but once you get a visa number assigned you get physical green card in few days)
Can you prove that the concept is false, this is plain interpretation of visa bulletin notes and the law.
You also know what I am stating. You already have heard the word"Pre-adjudication" which means "To assign number" based on monthly bulletin based EB table dates and then put a file on shelf to eat dust till USCIS can "approve 485" /"Send Physical greencard" based on Prority date becomes active based on "country specific limit"
If assigning number is almost equivalent to granting visa in a few days then there should not be hundreds of applicants waiting in "pre-adjudication" queue. We all know that many people have been pre-adjudicated and now they are just waiting for their physical GCs.
Can you prove that the concept is false, this is plain interpretation of visa bulletin notes and the law.
You also know what I am stating. You already have heard the word"Pre-adjudication" which means "To assign number" based on monthly bulletin based EB table dates and then put a file on shelf to eat dust till USCIS can "approve 485" /"Send Physical greencard" based on Prority date becomes active based on "country specific limit"
If assigning number is almost equivalent to granting visa in a few days then there should not be hundreds of applicants waiting in "pre-adjudication" queue. We all know that many people have been pre-adjudicated and now they are just waiting for their physical GCs.
gondalguru
07-17 01:45 PM
Assuming that the spill overs are effected only in the last (JAS) quarter, there wont be any significant movement for EB2. Until and otherwise the supply is more than demand, EB2 will not move forward significantly.
But I wish EB2 becomes current in the near future. Correct me if i am wrong.
I think spill over will happen every quarter and EB2 I/C dates will move forward every month / two months.
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bu...etin_4252.html
See under section E.
E. EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY
There have been questions raised regarding the way numbers have been provided to the China and India in the Employment Second preference categories beginning in April. Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act states that if total demand for visas in an Employment preference category is insufficient to use all available visa numbers in that category in a calendar quarter, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limit (For example: If the second preference annual limit were 40,000, number use by “All Other Countries” were estimated to be only 25,000, and the China/India combined number use based on their per-country limits were 6,000, then there would be 9,000 numbers unused. Those 9,000 numbers could then be made available to China and India applicants without regard to their per-country limits.)
But I wish EB2 becomes current in the near future. Correct me if i am wrong.
I think spill over will happen every quarter and EB2 I/C dates will move forward every month / two months.
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bu...etin_4252.html
See under section E.
E. EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY
There have been questions raised regarding the way numbers have been provided to the China and India in the Employment Second preference categories beginning in April. Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act states that if total demand for visas in an Employment preference category is insufficient to use all available visa numbers in that category in a calendar quarter, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limit (For example: If the second preference annual limit were 40,000, number use by “All Other Countries” were estimated to be only 25,000, and the China/India combined number use based on their per-country limits were 6,000, then there would be 9,000 numbers unused. Those 9,000 numbers could then be made available to China and India applicants without regard to their per-country limits.)
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msp1976
02-22 05:59 AM
Looks like lot of data is available for us to crunch on:
Labor certifications from 2000 to 2006
http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx
H1Bs issued from 2002 to 2006
http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CaseH1B.aspx
Hopefully using this data we can get some rough prediction on cutoff date movement. I'm going to spend the coming weekend on this.
There is a case status xls on the immigration portal for the backlog centers..That gives the total number of cases and status in both the labor backlog centers..
http://www.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?t=161571&page=311
Look for Case_Status.xls by sktripuraneni
Apart from H1Bs the 245(i) filings in April 01 was a big source of labor certification filing.....I had found an estimate of number of the 245(i) cases some time back.... I shall try to find and post it again...Those 245(i) cases are wholesale coming into EB3 category....
Also not all H1Bs that came.. stayed in US.. some went back.. ..So we need to decide on a 'retention factor'....That is the percentage of approved h1Bs that are in GC process.. This we got to estimate somehow.....
Also we do not have a concrete source for per country distribution of the pending labor certifications in backlog centers....How to get that...?? That is the big issue.....
The H1B data is not sufficient to do that....
Labor certifications from 2000 to 2006
http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx
H1Bs issued from 2002 to 2006
http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CaseH1B.aspx
Hopefully using this data we can get some rough prediction on cutoff date movement. I'm going to spend the coming weekend on this.
There is a case status xls on the immigration portal for the backlog centers..That gives the total number of cases and status in both the labor backlog centers..
http://www.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?t=161571&page=311
Look for Case_Status.xls by sktripuraneni
Apart from H1Bs the 245(i) filings in April 01 was a big source of labor certification filing.....I had found an estimate of number of the 245(i) cases some time back.... I shall try to find and post it again...Those 245(i) cases are wholesale coming into EB3 category....
Also not all H1Bs that came.. stayed in US.. some went back.. ..So we need to decide on a 'retention factor'....That is the percentage of approved h1Bs that are in GC process.. This we got to estimate somehow.....
Also we do not have a concrete source for per country distribution of the pending labor certifications in backlog centers....How to get that...?? That is the big issue.....
The H1B data is not sufficient to do that....
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breddy2000
09-03 11:10 PM
chill - u r working in US because have skills - got visa applied for Green card. In what way did Rajiv Gandhi help you? So do you say that everyone immigrating to USA from every country is because of Rajiv Gandhi?
I see that u r arguing just for the sake of arguement. Come on man. expand your thinking capacity - U r responsible for your own life and you do things in life that suits you. Just like how u r a software guru, politics is also a field which has become a "career oriented" field. Now, a lot of people trashed SRK during discussions, I did not understand what his fault was, for such trashing.
Now, the reason why a lot of people trash YSR is because of his corruptive governance - which crossed all limits.
If you think that one has to respect someone just because he/she is a leader - that may not be practical
If you don't know the difference between Policies and Politics I cannot help it.I'm talking about policies created by Govt in Power
That's all I can say....Good luck
CHANDUV23
And your ID is revealed _TrueFacts....That's all I can say and which u are very well aware of.
I see that u r arguing just for the sake of arguement. Come on man. expand your thinking capacity - U r responsible for your own life and you do things in life that suits you. Just like how u r a software guru, politics is also a field which has become a "career oriented" field. Now, a lot of people trashed SRK during discussions, I did not understand what his fault was, for such trashing.
Now, the reason why a lot of people trash YSR is because of his corruptive governance - which crossed all limits.
If you think that one has to respect someone just because he/she is a leader - that may not be practical
If you don't know the difference between Policies and Politics I cannot help it.I'm talking about policies created by Govt in Power
That's all I can say....Good luck
CHANDUV23
And your ID is revealed _TrueFacts....That's all I can say and which u are very well aware of.
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grupak
02-13 10:02 AM
I agree that quota system is cumbersome. It would've been much easier just to have one bucket. But I fail to see how it is discriminatory when every coutry gets an equal piece of the pie. It is a classic supply and demand issue, but it's not a discrimination. Consider also the fact that GC is a grace not a right. "Is it not lawful for me to do what I will with mine own?"
Forget discrimination, unfairness, etc.
First, everyone agrees that IV is working to remove backlog in the employment-based GC.
Then just removing the country cap is not going to help as there isn't enough visa to go around. Second, just increasing the visa numbers is not going to help without removing/significantly increasing the country cap as most employment-based GC demands are from a few countries.
IV is not the place to argue about 'us' and 'them' in EB GC. IV is to help all EB GC without discrimination based on country of birth, national origin, etc., so IV fights for (1) increasing GC numbers and (2) removing cap/significantly increasing cap.
There is no way around it if we want to remove backlog in EB GC.
Forget discrimination, unfairness, etc.
First, everyone agrees that IV is working to remove backlog in the employment-based GC.
Then just removing the country cap is not going to help as there isn't enough visa to go around. Second, just increasing the visa numbers is not going to help without removing/significantly increasing the country cap as most employment-based GC demands are from a few countries.
IV is not the place to argue about 'us' and 'them' in EB GC. IV is to help all EB GC without discrimination based on country of birth, national origin, etc., so IV fights for (1) increasing GC numbers and (2) removing cap/significantly increasing cap.
There is no way around it if we want to remove backlog in EB GC.
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Kushal
07-27 02:10 PM
Check this. And stop misguiding people
MurthyDotCom : Home-Based Businesses : Inadvertent Unauthorized Employment (http://murthy.com/news/n_hombus.html)
Nobody is misguiding anyone. Talk to your lawyer and find out. Amway doesn't offer you employment.
What you get is 1099-MISC the same you get for your stocks and investments. Talk to your lawyer and find out.
MurthyDotCom : Home-Based Businesses : Inadvertent Unauthorized Employment (http://murthy.com/news/n_hombus.html)
Nobody is misguiding anyone. Talk to your lawyer and find out. Amway doesn't offer you employment.
What you get is 1099-MISC the same you get for your stocks and investments. Talk to your lawyer and find out.
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CADude
02-13 10:51 PM
SIMPLE FACT: World is driven by self interest. General Attitude: Please let me get my GC first then I will be generous. I will agree do whatever you want and not object for anything but please give me GC first. People complain when they suffer otherwise who cares. Let them get hell with it. EB3 India is in same place from last 3 years but i didn't heard any buzz. Now all hope is dazed so hue and cry all over.
I am also suffering quite long (7+ year) in process and don't want any one go through same pain because i suffered.
Work for Goal and live a good life. It will not come back.
Take care..
I am also suffering quite long (7+ year) in process and don't want any one go through same pain because i suffered.
Work for Goal and live a good life. It will not come back.
Take care..
hot Back to the Lilo and Stitch
waitingnwaiting
01-05 05:16 PM
Moderators , Pls delete this thread. Why is the thread posted on a immigration forum. :mad:
Are you one of the the guys selling it? No harm listening to both sides of the argument.
Are you one of the the guys selling it? No harm listening to both sides of the argument.
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BharatPremi
12-13 05:22 PM
In short, you cannot challenge the law itself but, can challenge how the law is interpreted.
In general terms, yes that is the case and it should be. But what if some law is in direct conflict with the main theme or part of the constitution ?
Like here EEO bans consideration of country of origin but EB based immigration allows per country limit. Both concepts/practice are really attached with "Employment". :confused:
And all laws are really covered under the power of constitution? If not than where this one (per country based) lies? Constitutional OR non constitutional?
In general terms, yes that is the case and it should be. But what if some law is in direct conflict with the main theme or part of the constitution ?
Like here EEO bans consideration of country of origin but EB based immigration allows per country limit. Both concepts/practice are really attached with "Employment". :confused:
And all laws are really covered under the power of constitution? If not than where this one (per country based) lies? Constitutional OR non constitutional?
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jchan
07-25 10:55 AM
IMO, both arguments and are valid as far as speculations are concerned. It all depends on perspective. In this thread, we are focusing on statistics and calculations. I my self did lot of calculations. However, objectively looking at Ron's comments, it appears like his concern and underlying message is what if USCIS won't adjudicate enough numbers and wastes visa numbers as it did lot of times. He is basing his prediction on years of experience. With recent pressure on DOS/USCIS to use visa number, I think, they are making an attempt to use up all numbers and that will definitely bring life to our calculations. But what If they do not do that.....and their 'target' is a low number.
Well, we are talking about 'cutoff date move', not actual approved I485's. If USCIS works in full steam, the EB2 backlog will be reduced quickly, which will result in cut off date move; if they don't, the DOS has to move date forward to allow more CP, that will also cause cut off date move. So either way, the horizontal spill over rule will have a huge positive impact on the EB2 dates move
Well, we are talking about 'cutoff date move', not actual approved I485's. If USCIS works in full steam, the EB2 backlog will be reduced quickly, which will result in cut off date move; if they don't, the DOS has to move date forward to allow more CP, that will also cause cut off date move. So either way, the horizontal spill over rule will have a huge positive impact on the EB2 dates move
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paskal
12-13 12:02 PM
as always Mark!
There may or may not be constitution grounds to challenge the law, I've thought about this too, however from a pragmatic point of view....
1) The money needed to pay the lawyers would likely be more than for lobbying. Importantly money for legal costs is best to be on hand -- i.e. good cash flow, otherwise you risk missing legal deadlines. It would mean diverting money from lobbying. If we were flush with cash e.g. every member paid just $100 per year this would work.
2) Even among members of congress that are behind us, several have reservations about removing country cap (although they are willing to raise it).
3) EB3 ROW is retrogressed anyway. India EB3 is about May 2001, and ROW EB3 Oct 2002. The effect of only removing country quota would be put EB3 generally at about Oct 2001.
The way to move forward for all is to increase total through put, e.g. raise caps, remove dependents from caps, recapture unused quota, tie caps to multiple of H1B quota. For ROW it would move steadily forward, and India move and then would jump forward every 4th quarter with massive spill over from ROW.
As I said I'm not against the idea in principle, just being pragmatic.
There may or may not be constitution grounds to challenge the law, I've thought about this too, however from a pragmatic point of view....
1) The money needed to pay the lawyers would likely be more than for lobbying. Importantly money for legal costs is best to be on hand -- i.e. good cash flow, otherwise you risk missing legal deadlines. It would mean diverting money from lobbying. If we were flush with cash e.g. every member paid just $100 per year this would work.
2) Even among members of congress that are behind us, several have reservations about removing country cap (although they are willing to raise it).
3) EB3 ROW is retrogressed anyway. India EB3 is about May 2001, and ROW EB3 Oct 2002. The effect of only removing country quota would be put EB3 generally at about Oct 2001.
The way to move forward for all is to increase total through put, e.g. raise caps, remove dependents from caps, recapture unused quota, tie caps to multiple of H1B quota. For ROW it would move steadily forward, and India move and then would jump forward every 4th quarter with massive spill over from ROW.
As I said I'm not against the idea in principle, just being pragmatic.
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gondalguru
06-27 12:32 PM
I still believe that the rumor is true. The numbers will retrogress in middle of the month or even earlier probably by the end of first week of july. It doesn't mean that all the catagories will become unavailable. They may retrogress the numbers by 2-3 years and still have enough approvable I-485 for the last quarter of the current fiscal year.
Hurry up guys and plan to file as soon as possible.
Don't come back later crying that you were not warned.
Hurry up guys and plan to file as soon as possible.
Don't come back later crying that you were not warned.
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a1b2c3
01-14 12:48 PM
Check what they are paying. I know a company which charges $110-$130 ph to the client and payes around $30K for the employee in L1. Is it good business practice...? Not only desi consulting cos...these a$$ also the reason we are in this mess today. Just imagine when the antis comes to know that 30K pa salary....
V true.
Folks, the memo clearly empowers USCIS to crack down on consulting firms which don't have any in-house infrastructure (other than contractors) to execute projects.
H1B is misused for a long time now by these firms and it was high time they put the screws on these "job shops" as they call it. Unfortunately some talented workers will get impacted.
But if they are talented they will find opportunities elsewhere. Trust me on that. And better opportunities.
Nathan is exactly right. These firms have created a mess by bending rules everywhere.
Don't start speculating that USCIS is trying to throw out all immigrants from this country. I'm surprised that folks don't take a proper view of the situation (yeah..bring the reds on and call me an anti-immigrant).
V true.
Folks, the memo clearly empowers USCIS to crack down on consulting firms which don't have any in-house infrastructure (other than contractors) to execute projects.
H1B is misused for a long time now by these firms and it was high time they put the screws on these "job shops" as they call it. Unfortunately some talented workers will get impacted.
But if they are talented they will find opportunities elsewhere. Trust me on that. And better opportunities.
Nathan is exactly right. These firms have created a mess by bending rules everywhere.
Don't start speculating that USCIS is trying to throw out all immigrants from this country. I'm surprised that folks don't take a proper view of the situation (yeah..bring the reds on and call me an anti-immigrant).
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snathan
01-14 10:59 AM
I understand. But it's true. I have many friends and these body shoppers don't pay for their medical insurance and all of my friends have a tough time - even Kforce etc doesn't pay if you're a contractor directly hired by them. Infosys, TCS pays and provides all kinds of benefits for people on H1, I don't know what ppl are against companies that have good business practice.
Deloitte, Accenture, IBM brings ppl from other countries on L1 - why balme Infosys, TCS.
Check what they are paying. I know a company which charges $110-$130 ph to the client and payes around $30K for the employee in L1. Is it good business practice...? Not only desi consulting cos...these a$$ also the reason we are in this mess today. Just imagine when the antis comes to know that 30K pa salary....
Deloitte, Accenture, IBM brings ppl from other countries on L1 - why balme Infosys, TCS.
Check what they are paying. I know a company which charges $110-$130 ph to the client and payes around $30K for the employee in L1. Is it good business practice...? Not only desi consulting cos...these a$$ also the reason we are in this mess today. Just imagine when the antis comes to know that 30K pa salary....
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qasleuth
05-28 11:55 PM
[B]
Mr. Oppenheim estimated that there are currently 25,000 EB2 and EB3 cases from Indian nationals that have been reviewed and are only waiting for visa numbers for final processing.
Help me understand here: when pre-adjudicating applications, either you pre-approve, if not satisfied issue RFE or deny. Why would only 25,000 applications have been pre-adjudicated ? NSC processing timeframe being Aug 27, 2007 and TSC Aug 8, 2007, shouldn't the 25,000 number be much higher when compared to the total of 120,000 applications chargeable to India?
Mr. Oppenheim estimated that there are currently 25,000 EB2 and EB3 cases from Indian nationals that have been reviewed and are only waiting for visa numbers for final processing.
Help me understand here: when pre-adjudicating applications, either you pre-approve, if not satisfied issue RFE or deny. Why would only 25,000 applications have been pre-adjudicated ? NSC processing timeframe being Aug 27, 2007 and TSC Aug 8, 2007, shouldn't the 25,000 number be much higher when compared to the total of 120,000 applications chargeable to India?
sats123
01-10 10:04 PM
Fu&^*& desi companies are still advertising for pre approved labor, here is what I got from a desi company. Looks like this labor is cleared from Backlog, they take advantage of this and make money. Its fu$%%$ jackpot for these kind of companies.
Education: BE in Computer Science, Software Engineering or a related
degree
1) Skills Oracle, Oracle Database, Developer 2000,HTML.TOAD and Window
NT
2) Visual Basis, MS SQL Server, ARS Language, HTML Java Script, ASP,
Crystal Reports., Help Desk application web interface of help desk.
Send your Resume along with your Contact #.
Education: BE in Computer Science, Software Engineering or a related
degree
1) Skills Oracle, Oracle Database, Developer 2000,HTML.TOAD and Window
NT
2) Visual Basis, MS SQL Server, ARS Language, HTML Java Script, ASP,
Crystal Reports., Help Desk application web interface of help desk.
Send your Resume along with your Contact #.
ujjwal_p
10-15 05:38 PM
If spillover works, logic is simple. Pending applications ~290K. Quot available ~140k
So, in just two years, every category should be current. Lets not scratch our heads.
Please work out the data versus pending/quota/spillover. Do VISA DATES ENGINEERING. And figure out the visa dates process/workflow and put in front of DOS/USCIS to adopt. Or lobby to adopt. or rally to adopt.
Otherwise our math will always be different from DOS/USCIS math on visa dates ;)
Easy boss. It aint that simple. You think nobody's going to be awarded gc's in the next year from EB1 and EB2 ROW? Wow. You not only need spillover but also need really low demand from EB1 and EB2 ROW through next Oct. If economy start picking up we'll be piling up on the backlog again and back to twiddling our thumbs waiting for visa bulletin every month. The only way this can be solved is through more visas or through visa recapture. If either of them doesn't happen, we are pretty much guaranteed not seeing "current" for a good 5-10 years, assuming the economy starts recovering and adding more jobs which seems like it has slowly begun. Not that simple.
So, in just two years, every category should be current. Lets not scratch our heads.
Please work out the data versus pending/quota/spillover. Do VISA DATES ENGINEERING. And figure out the visa dates process/workflow and put in front of DOS/USCIS to adopt. Or lobby to adopt. or rally to adopt.
Otherwise our math will always be different from DOS/USCIS math on visa dates ;)
Easy boss. It aint that simple. You think nobody's going to be awarded gc's in the next year from EB1 and EB2 ROW? Wow. You not only need spillover but also need really low demand from EB1 and EB2 ROW through next Oct. If economy start picking up we'll be piling up on the backlog again and back to twiddling our thumbs waiting for visa bulletin every month. The only way this can be solved is through more visas or through visa recapture. If either of them doesn't happen, we are pretty much guaranteed not seeing "current" for a good 5-10 years, assuming the economy starts recovering and adding more jobs which seems like it has slowly begun. Not that simple.